Turkey Urges HTS Offensive Against Kurds in Syria, Threatens Own Military Action

Turkey has reportedly issued a directive that could significantly alter the dynamics of the ongoing Syrian conflict, focusing on the Kurds in northern Syria. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has implicitly pushed for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, to take offensive actions against Kurdish forces, particularly the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which includes the YPG (People's Protection Units), seen by Ankara as an extension of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party).

According to recent statements, Fidan has suggested that Turkey would refrain from launching its own military operations in Syria if the new authorities in Damascus could establish full control over the nation's territory. This conditionality indicates Turkey's strategic maneuvering to either leverage existing militant groups or to justify its own military actions under the pretext of national security against perceived threats from Kurdish autonomy near its borders.

The statement from Fidan, as noted in posts on X, reflects Turkey's long-standing policy of combating what it labels as terrorist organizations, particularly those with Kurdish affiliations. This approach has not only strained Turkey's relations with the United States, due to the U.S. support for the SDF in the fight against ISIS, but also complicated the Syrian conflict landscape by indirectly empowering groups like HTS, which have roots in al-Qaeda.

Turkey's potential military engagement or support for HTS operations against the Kurds could lead to further destabilization in an already volatile region. The SDF has been a critical ally to the U.S. in defeating ISIS, but Turkey views their presence as a direct threat to its national security, fearing the establishment of a Kurdish autonomous region along its borders might inspire similar movements within Turkey itself.

The implications are vast, ranging from humanitarian crises for the Kurdish population to a possible reshaping of the geopolitical alignments in the Middle East. If HTS advances under Turkish influence, it could lead to increased violence, displacement, and a further fracturing of Syrian unity, challenging the fragile peace processes and international efforts towards a resolution in Syria.
The situation remains fluid, with the international community watching closely to see whether HTS will heed Turkey's implied directive or if Turkey will take direct military action. Either scenario will have significant repercussions for the future of Kurdish autonomy, Syrian sovereignty, and regional peace.